A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
