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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still